This animation shows the projected range expansion of Aedes aegypti in North America under changing climate conditions. The areas in red show population centers where outbreaks are most likely. Yellow shows areas at risk for transmission.

In this model, Ae. aegypti are assumed to survive only at temperatures above 10°C in winter, and to not live at high elevations (above 1500 meters). Assumptions are based on research reported in Aedes aegypti (L.), the yellow fever mosquito: its life history, bionomics and structure, pp 550 and Identification and Geographical Distribution of the Mosquitoes of North America, pp. 226 –228. Human population density interacts with the mosquito distribution to effect the liklihood of outbreak and transmission. Future human population growth is based on the the LandScan 2000 global population database (which was extrapolated into the future using US Census and United Nations population projections for 2050). Winter temperature projections are based on the climate change simulations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), using the SRES A2 emission scenario, whose hypothesized greenhouse gas emission rates over the rest of this century are similar to the rates of global emissions recorded in most recent years.

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