Large-scale computer simulations run by Northwestern researchers show worst-case scenario projections of approximately 1,700 cases of swine flu for the entire United States four weeks from now.

Dirk Brockmann, associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science who leads the research group, finds that the major areas shown to have incidents in the worst-case scenario include California, Texas and Florida. Worst-case scenario means that no measures have been taken to combat the spread of disease. These numbers would, of course, be lessened by preventive measures already under way.

Under this scenario, more than 100 cases are projected for the Chicago area. The affected locations largely correspond to major transportation hubs in the country. The researchers also will be running simulations on the possible time course of the spread of swine flu in Europe.

Full story: northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2009/04/brockmann.html

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