Near-surface wind (streamlines), temperature (colour) and sea-level pressure (contours)), as forecast for midnight (0 hours) on September 16th 2013 - as a function of forecast lead time (starts 10 days ahead and moves closer to the target time).

Data shown are means from the Met Office Glosea ensemble. The fog is a metric of uncertainty (the relative entropy of forecast and climatological sea-level pressure) - fog free areas are where this metric indicates considerable additional skill in the forecast compared to climatology.

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