Indian Summer Monsoon: How reliable are the regional and global climate models?
Vimal Mishra, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar
The Indian summer monsoon (June-September) provides more than 80% of the total annual rainfall in India. Year-to-year variability in the monsoon system results in droughts and floods, which in turn affect food security, economic growth, and infrastructure. The year-to-year variability of the Indian summer monsoon is largely driven by the sea surface anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long-term trends in the monsoon season precipitation affected the water availability in India. The talk will present an overview of the Indian summer monsoon for (i) year-to-year variability, (ii) observed trends, (iii) implications on water resources, (iv) skills of regional and global climate models, and (v) future projections and uncertainty. The talk will highlight the importance of the Indian summer monsoon for the water availability in India. Moreover, the complexity of the Indian summer monsoon and the reliability of the regional and global climate models to simulate the features of the monsoon system will be presented.