ETA Seminar October 6, 2015 Speaker: Phil Price
This talk is about how to and characterize and predict electric load as a function of time (the “load shape”), in commercial buildings. It is Price’s attempt to pass along his thoughts about building energy modeling before he leaves LBNL next week. The talk is geared towards energy modeling practitioners and will not include a high-level overview or discussion of motivation; as such, it will not be of general interest. Some of the topics include (1) The effect of outdoor air temperature depends on the building’s operating mode; how can this be handled in a statistical model? (2) The pattern of daily or weekly electric load changes with time in most buildings; how can a model recognize this change, and adapt to it (if adaptation is desired)? (3) What measures of model fit are most useful, and to what extent does the answer depend on how the model is used (e.g. to quantify long-term energy savings, versus energy savings for a 4-hour Demand Response event). (4) How can additional predictive data, such as data related to building occupancy, best be included? The way these and other issues are handled in LBNL’s open source “loadshape” program will be discussed in some detail; strengths and weaknesses of those approaches will be highlighted; and some alternative approaches will be discussed in brief. There will also be brief discussion of how load shape analysis may be used to identify energy savings opportunities, or faults in building operation.
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