Presented by Céline Bonfils,Ph.D.
Research Scientist, Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
This talk gravitates around two main topics: 1) the detection and attribution of climate change on the hydrological cycle, and 2) the competitive influence of mean-state shifts and internal (ENSO) variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate. These two studies, based on global scale analyses, can provide some insight regarding the projected changes in precipitation, and regarding the type of information that one could extract from coupled climate models (and their limitations). I will also highlight the difficulty (and the importance) to distinguish the contribution of the forced components and of natural variability influencing the observed changes in climate.