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There is a lot of what Luke says about the birth of Jesus that we can not confirm. But Luke claims to be a careful historian, and where we can check out what he writes, later in his narratives, it is often confirmed by external evidence.
Luke's accuracy is most apparent in the second half of his account of the beginnings of Christianity, the book of Acts. There are many places where Acts touches on wider world history – and wherever it does, Luke is accurate. So shouldn't we give him the benefit of the doubt in the places that we can not check?
Unwrapped video #09