A history of climate change and the IPCC, including:
a) IPCC admits that the world is emerging from the Little Ice Age.
b) IPCC claims that recent data can be used to validate its models ... 10 years of cooling shows that the IPCC models are wrong.
c) Data is presented showing that claims of recent "unprecedented" warming are wrong.
This video was posted for the Greenpeace "Climate Change" propaganda forum, "Global Cooling" thread. As a result of this SHOCKING video and the following SHOCKING forum post, I HAVE BEEN BANNED BY GREENPEACE.
It is sad to see that a wonderful organization like Greenpeace has chosen NOT to follow the principles of free speech has become dominated by bigotry.
These numbers :
... are not "random" as you (juliettelucie, Greenpeace administrator) suggest. They are the numbers used by the IPCC to plot global average temperatures (IPCC 2007 AR4 Full report Fig 1.1 page 31)
IPCC Temperature Data.
The data shown in the table has the form:
Column 1: Year (from 1850); Col 2-13: Monthly averages; Col 14; Yearly average.
You can plot it yourself manually but it's not hard to see why I wrote my macro to plot it !
The obvious question is "where do these numbers come from" ?
Many people have been asking this question for many years. The IPCC chosen to keep this information secret until just over a year ago, when some of the details were revealed:
The first question is "how do you get an average daily temperature" when temperatures change throughout the day. Simple, add the highest and lowest and divide by two. Not very meaningful but that is what is used.
The data shown ranges from 1850, almost to the end of the Little Ice Age in 1830. What was temperature measurement like back then ? Here we have a lovely historical account:
In other words, back in 1850, many stations didn't even record a maximum and minimum temperature, despite the invention of the "Six thermometer" in 1782
Temperature measurement in 1850 was indeed far inferior to today. Temperatures were not even shielded from the sun. This came with the invention of the "Stevenson screen" in 1864. The Stevenson screen was not introduced to Australia untill the 1880s
Temperature Measurement Locations
The IPCC has now revealed its station locations here:
Examination of these shows some interesting facts.
1. At least 70% of the globe is not covered ... the ocean
2. Most of these stations do not record data back to 1850. That is, we are not looking at the same thing now ("average of some group of temperatures") compared to 1850.
3. Only 17% , that is 710 of the 4138 stations listed are in the Southern hemisphere. The Southern hemisphere is cooling far more rapidly than the North. The Southern hemisphere cooling is at a rate of 4 degrees per century (based on past 7 year's data).
The graph in the IPCC report above shows the current gobal average temperature as being 14.45 degrees plus or minus 0.08 degrees.
Temperatures are now measured electronically but are recorded to plus or minus .5 degrees http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/dad/coop/EQUIPMENT.pdf page 11
In 1850 electronics didn’t exist and the recording accuracy would be expected to be much worse. (IPCC claims 4 times worse)
If the real measurement accuracy were displayed on the temperature graph, the rise of 1 degree since 1850 almost disappears in the error bands.
Global average temperatures as used by the IPCC, have shown a general warming since the end of the Little Ice Age and now show a cooling. There are large errors in the temperatures and trends.
A final note on temperature data accuracy.
The IPCC bases its data accuracy on this paper:
Page 6 contains a critical error on page 6, obvious to even a first year student in statistics. Measurement error is ignored.
The above paper uses this paper for its error estimate: http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~mnew/teaching/Online_Articles/folland_et_al_temp_uncertainties_GRL_2001.PDF
Page 2 of this page suggests that took a guess at the accuracy ... no methods, no references.
A detailed survey has shown weather station measurement error to be quite high: http://www.surfacestations.org/ shows that 11 % of stations have a temperature measurement error greater than 5 degrees; 58% have errors greater than 2 degrees; 20% have errors greater than 1 degree.
These errors swamp apparent temperature changes in recent history.