Warm temps today, but change is afoot my friends! Weather forecasts beginning to gel & the hopes of POW once again are in the air here @ The Wood!
Dropped some POW footy into today’s shoot to stoke you up my friends! Keep the faith, new snow = more terrain & lord knows we want to open the Mtn. up in full force!
Just imagine the 1st line down the Wall or Norm’s! Best thoughts & positive energy to our friend Sarah Burke get well soon! Josh Daiek was in the HAUS of REVY today for the finals…
Learn to ride month continues with a $59 2hr lesson, rental & lift ticket! Lodging specials (book now save big) and check out shopkirkwood.com & the amazing Kirkwood pass holder deals on gear! Login now & be ready for the 1st storms with a set of new sticks or get 30% on outerwear when you purchase 2 or more items in that category!
Here is the latest from the discussion board…..
The new 0z GFS just came in and conintues to show storms Wednesday the 18th through the following Thursday the 26th.
Today is day 14 of the original countdown to the ridge leaving the West Coast. It is now North off the Pacific NW coast and then we will see the ridge start to build over Alaska by the weekend. The big snows in Alaska are going to take a break and shift South down the West Coast.
In the long-range I like to use the teleconnections and not the unreliable forecast models. The forecast over the past month and a half has been all long-range forecasting. Once we get witin a week of possible storms it is time to start using the forecast models for the details and the models within a week have picked up on the teleconnections.
If you have been looking at the forecast models over the past 2 weeks you know all the flipping back and forth, but more than a week out this is exected especially when a pattern change is occuring. We saw the stratospheric warming coming back in mid-December and the liklihood the AO would go negative in January. The -AO produces blocking but the position of the blocking is critical. The question is still where will the ridge setup in the North Pacific.
Friday would be 5 days out from what could be the onset of the storms next Wednesday. That is when I start to feel comfortable enough to look at snowfall amounts. Today we are right on the edge of the one week mark so the forecast models start to become more interesting. The trend today has been for a better chance for storms next week.
If we had received normal amounts of snow so far this season I would be getting really excited for the storm prospects next week. But with the way the season has been going and not wanting anyone to jump off a bridge if it doesn’t snow I am still be cautiously optimistic. That being said both the 12z GFS and Euro looked very similar for next week with storms starting to move in on Wednesday and lasting into the following weekend.