Why Obama Will Win In 2008 and 2012 by Daniel Bruno, Chartered Market Technician
Abstract: Written in early 2007, Why Obama Will Win in 2008 & 2012 is a study of American business and political cycles since the great deflation of agricultural commodities following the Revolutionary War and Shay's Rebellion of the 1790s. The author forecast-ed the great recession of 2008 and his book was the first to predict that Obama would defeat Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party nomination. It is also the first book to correctly forecast the presidential election outcome of 2008 and predict an Obama win for the election of 2012. The thesis is that electoral realignments follow on the heels of deflationary shocks (collapse in asset prices of stocks and real estate) and that these shocks occur in predictable cycles. Recessions, wars, stock market crashes and rotation of power within the two-party duopoly can be predicted years in advance to a degree of probability that is statistically significant.
Public opinion and polls are of no value in predicting election outcomes until seven days before the vote.
"Detailed and convincing -- a solid scholarly study -- the author draws from economic data and history, not opinion poll data, to support his case that economic data and a voter's sense of well-being figure prominently in election outcomes. It's a solid scholarly study." -- Sylvan Feldstein, Ph.D Columbia University, New York.
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