What's New in Science
University of Kentucky
Dave Moecher

Part 3 of 4: Basics of Prediction and Risk Assessment
Past earthquake prediction efforts were based on several basic tenets (“the earthquake paradigm”) that are now being questioned by some seismologists. Earthquakes exhibit simple statistical distributions that can be used to understand their recurrence. Basic probability can be used to estimate earthquake recurrence intervals. Seismic risk is defined.

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