Friday, September 6, 2019 at 11:00 AM AKDT
Aaron Jacobs NWS, Rick Thoman ACCAP, Holly Prendeville USDA
This talk will look at how the summer of 2019 turned out from a climate and drought perspective across the temperate rainforest of Southeast Alaska and look into if the region will see a wet autumn and snowy winter. We will also go over what type of impacts were recorded throughout the summer along with a progress report on follow-up work from the Southeast Alaska Drought workshop held this past spring.
Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 10:00 AM AKDT
Vera Trainer, NOAA Fisheries & Rick Thoman, ACCAP
Algal blooms are not uncommon in the oceans around Alaska, but only rarely are they harmful to people. Along the shores of the Gulf of Alaska, harmful algal blooms are a known hazard. However, in western Alaska, the oceans have historically experienced fewer impacts from the kinds of algae that produce paralytic shellfish and domoic acid poisoning. This presentation will provide an overview of algal toxins and their impacts and a review of the recent changes in ocean climate that now make this a potential hazard for the coasts of western Alaska.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019 at 10:00 AM AKDT
Renee Tatusko, NWS
Based on the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Regional Climate Center's (RCCs) concept and as a legacy of the 2007-2008 International Polar Year, the Arctic Regional Climate Center (ArcRCC) network has been established. The ArcRCC is a network of the Arctic national meteorological and ice services that is providing pan-Arctic seasonal temperature, precipitation, and sea ice products. The ArcRCC began a 2-year demonstration phase in May 2018. In support of the ArcRCC initiative, Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forums (PARCOFs) occur every May (a face-to-face meeting) and October (virtually). These forums allow for the national meteorological and ice services to meet and prepare the seasonal products in consultation with different Arctic user groups. The PARCOFs produce seasonal summaries of the past season describing actual temperature, precipitation, and sea-ice details/trends; seasonal outlooks for the upcoming season for temperature, precipitation, and sea ice; and a Consensus Statement which reviews the trends in the historical monitoring data and explains the forecasts in a text format providing greater regional details, i.e., forecasted sea-ice freeze-up and break-up. This presentation will provide an overview of the ArcRCC and the latest information from the Third PARCOF held in Rovaniemi, Finland, May 8-9.
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:30 PM AKDT
David DeWitt and Wanqiu Wang, CPC
Dr Wang will present on subseasonal and seasonal sea ice prediction systems available from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
CPC experimental sea ice predictions
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 is one of the first operational coupled atmosphere-ocean models that provide sea ice predictions with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice component. The predicted sea ice from CFS, however, contains large errors in seasonal cycle as well as interannual variations due to unrealistic model physics and use of erroneous sea ice initial conditions. An experimental forecast system (CFSpp) was developed based on CFS at the NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with improved model physics and improved sea ice initial conditions from University of Washington Pan-arctic Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). CPC started providing seasonal sea ice prediction in 2015. The CFSpp has been recently further upgraded to CFSm5 with a newer ocean component (MOM5) and an in-house CPC Sea ice Initialization System (CSIS). In this talk, we present an overview of the development of the CPC experimental sea ice forecast system, prediction products, and an evaluation of the predictions. The following aspects will be discussed: (1) Challenges in sea ice forecasts from NCEP operational CFS; (2) CPC experimental sea ice prediction system; (3) CPC sea ice initialization system; (4) Forecast performance assessment; and (5) Forecast products. An assessment of the forecast for the record-low Bering Sea sea ice extent in 2018 spring and the sea ice advancement in Bering Sea in 2018-2019 winter will also be presented.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM AKDT
Crane Johnson, National Weather Service & Rick Thoman, ACCAP
Each year the National Weather Service provides a breakup outlook for Alaska rivers. This winter stands out as unusual with both temperature and precipitation anomalies observed throughout the state. This year we are partnering with UAF to present a brief overview of current conditions and provide a climate outlook and the flooding potential for the 2019 spring break-up season.