We want to share this example of a scenario for several reasons. First, the reason we produce multiple scenarios is because some will represent desirable outcomes, and others will highlight future states you want to avoid. THey key is that they are plausible, credible, but not always want you'd want your future to be. Second, even though the ultimate goal is very serious, have fun along the way- humor is a powerful communication tool. In order for scenarios to be an effective tool in setting boundaries, they should spark discussion, not just answer questions.
Can a year of research be communicated in 2 minutes? What about 5 years? Remember the 5 W's: What, Why, Who, When, Where. Thank you to Team Harbrick for letting us share this example.
After 14 years of facilitating scenarios for innovation we can assure you of a few realities:
1. Scenarios that push your sense of plausibility tend to end up happening faster than portrayed;
2. Multiple scenarios are important because you get very clear on what to avoid and how;
3. Insight from foresight comes not from deciding the future will be "like this", but in the discussion of "What if it does" "What if it doesn't" "What could make this happen sooner?" "What could prevent this future?"
Only then can we get to the most powerful question of all..... What if your organization participated in creating it? Leadership courage isn't deciding when to react- but when to create. Not sure? Ask the 3 guys leading AirBnB, ask Team Harbrick, ask the two Stanford grads who decided to organize the worlds information.
Concrete Example: In driverless cars, the whole world is asking, "What will be the role of insurance?" "What will insurance look like with these cars?" Important questions, but not the key question. Somebody will ask, "What if an insurance company accelerates this future of saving- 1.2M lives, 1.2B gal of oil, 6M injuries per year?" That will be the insurer who leads for the next century of personal mobility. That is the courage needed to rewrite the rules everyone else will have to follow.
Check out the remarkable film in production by our friends at Hodgearts! This is going to be really special, and you can participate by becoming a sponsor! email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. click on the link for the full prospectus.
This video is Part 2 of a 2 part series on the New Era of Mobility and the implications upon those industries that make up the crash economy- insurance, claims, repair facilities, medical care, Claims Litigation Counsels.