1. Considerable avalanche danger: How much riskier is it?

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    from Bruce Jamieson / Added

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    Based on an ISSW 2009 paper by Bruce Jamieson, Juerg Schweizer and Cora Shea, the presentation uses an event tree, an expert survey of triggering odds, Canadian Accident data and some large assumptions to calculate the risk of death for a day of backcountry skiing at each of the levels of regional avalanche danger. The backcountry skiing risks are compared with the risks for a day of kayaking, a day of rock climbing and a day of mountaineering. During Considerable avalanche danger, backcountry skiing risk is about 10 times higher than when the avalanche danger is Moderate. The paper is posted at http://www.ucalgary.ca/asarc/system/files/RiskCalc_Issw09_Jamieson.pdf

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